我国制造业投资增速降幅将继续收窄

<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">　　近日，赛迪智库工业经济研究所研究员张亚丽表示，预计未来将形成基建投资增速在上、制造业投资增速在下的<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">“<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">口<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">”<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">字型走势，制造业投资增速降幅将继续收窄。

<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">制造业投资活力亟需激发

　　<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">“<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">从<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">2019<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">年初开始，制造业投资增速长期低位徘徊，低于工业、全部投资增速，由于制造业投资占工业投资<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">83%<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">，占全部固定资产投资<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">31%<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">，对工业、全部投资带动作用减弱。受到疫情严重冲击，制造业投资雪上加霜，<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">1-5<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">月制造业投资下降<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">14.8%<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">，降幅比工业、全部投资扩大<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">3.9<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">个、<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">8.5<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">个百分点，比工业、全部投资下滑幅度更大。<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">” <晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">张亚丽表示。

<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">　　数据显示，<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">1—5<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">月份，制造业投资同比下降<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">14.8%<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">，降幅比<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">1—4<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">月份收窄<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">4.0<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">个百分点。其中，装备制造业、消费品制造业投资降幅分别收窄<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">3.8<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">和<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">4.0<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">个百分点。

<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">　　张亚丽表示，高技术制造业投资在疫情冲击后表现较强韧，<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">1-5<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">月高技术制造业投资同比增长<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">2.7%<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">，<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">1-4<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">月份为下降<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">3.6%<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">。其中，计算机及办公设备制造业投资增长<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">12.0%<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">，医药制造业投资增长<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">6.9%<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">，电子及通信设备制造业投资增长<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">2.5%<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">，医疗仪器设备及仪器仪表制造业投资增长<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">2.3%<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">。装备制造业、消费品制造业投资降幅分别收窄<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">3.8<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">和<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">4.0<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">个百分点。

　　<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">“<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">随着疫情防控向好形势巩固，制造业企业生产将加快，利润降幅将进一步收窄，但受企业产品库存上升较多、工业品价格持续回落、成本压力依然较大等多重因素影响，制造业企业利润降幅可能仍然较大，盈利形势仍不容乐观。利润是制造业投资的驱动器，制造业利润持续下降，导致制造业投资回报率下降，影响制造业投资意愿下降，尤其是制造业民间投资意愿。<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">”<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">张亚丽说。

<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">　　值得欣慰的是，很多有利因素激发制造业投资活力。张亚丽表示，大规模传统基建投资项目实施启动，装备制造、现代生物医药等先进制造业投资加快，将带动制造业投资增速降幅收窄。<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">5G<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">、工业互联网等新型基础设施建设投资加快实施，促进制造业转型升级，扩大有效投资。阶段性减免企业税费等短期政策将逐步退出，稳投资、促项目、保增长等中长期政策相继出台落实，激发制造业投资活力。

<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">  <晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">制造业投资增速降幅将继续收窄

　　<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">“<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">大规模基建投资带动钢铁、建材、装备等制造业生产、投资恢复，预计未来将形成基建投资增速在上、制造业投资增速在下的<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">‘<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">口<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">’<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">字型走势。<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">”<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">张亚丽表示。

<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">　　张亚丽认为，各地计划实施重大投资项目多集中于基础设施建设，将拉动钢铁、建材、装备等行业生产加快，促进制造业投资逐步恢复。根据历年基础建设投资增速和制造业投资增速走势判断，基础建设投资变动幅度大，制造业投资变化相对比较缓，未来基建投资增速恢复增长将更快，制造业投资增速将缓慢收窄并实现正增长。

　　<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">“<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">以<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">5G<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">、人工智能、数据中心等为代表新型基础设施建设成为投资的重点方向，但其规模较小，短期内带动制造业投资恢复作用有限，但其发展空间大，对制造业投资影响是长期的，能促进制造业转型升级、高质量发展。传统基础设施建设投资规模大、短期刺激作用明显。疫情冲击下，制造业投资恢复仍需传统基建和新型基建并重发力。<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">”<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">张亚丽说。

<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">　　此外，境外疫情加速蔓延，导致制造业企业外需不足，对我国制造业利用外商投资造成负面影响，对制造业投资构成持续性压制。张亚丽表示，外商投资面临不确性增加，内需将比外需率先恢复，制造业投资恢复更加依赖国内投资。

　　<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">“<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">综合看，疫情期间企业利润、产能利用率大幅下降，出口形势不容乐观，国内消费恢复仍需时日，影响制造业投资动力和意愿，但随制造业企业复工复产进一步推进、投资项目建设进度加快、稳投资政策相继落地，带动制造业投资有所好转，高新技术、生物医药等先进制造业投资增速将不断加快，预计制造业投资增速降幅将继续收窄。<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: Simsun, serif; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">”<晴风村n style="word-break: break-all; font-family: 宋体; text-size-adjust: none; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">张亚丽表示。