<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">如是金融研究院院长管清友对经济观察网表示：<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">“<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">二季度<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">GDP<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">增速由负转正确实来之不易，超过了市场预期，此前很多机构研判二季度大概率是<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">2%-3%<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">之间的正增长。上半年<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">-1.6%<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">的<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">GDP<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">增速也基本符合市场预期，这说明我们在二季度，正逐渐的去对冲疫情对一季度经济的冲击。<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">”
<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">与此同时，管清友也表示，二季度中国的经济增长总额超过美国应该是大概率事件，这是<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">1840<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">年以来中国单季度<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">GDP<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">总额首次超过美国。<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">“<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">从数据上来看确实是这样，但是我们对于自己的国情和我们经济发展的阶段，要有一个清醒认知，要保持冷静的头脑。<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">”
<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">值得注意的是，<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">2019<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">年全年<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">GDP<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">总额为<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">99.0865<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">万亿，<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">2020<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">年上半年<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">GDP<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">总额为<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">45.6614<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">万亿元，如果要实现<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">2020<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">年全年<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">GDP<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">增速转正，则下半年<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">GDP<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">总额至少为<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">53.4251<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">万亿，相当于同比增长<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">1.4%<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">；如果要实现<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">2020<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">年全年<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">GDP<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">增长<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">6%<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">，则下半年<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">GDP<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">总额至少为<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">59.3703<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">万亿，相当于同比增长<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">12.7%<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">。
<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">投资
<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">数据显示，<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">1—6<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">月份，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">281603<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">亿元，同比下降<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">3.1%<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">，降幅比<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">1—5<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">月份收窄<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">3.2<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">个百分点，今年以来，全国固定资产投资降幅呈不断收窄的趋势。从环比速度看，<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">6<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">月份固定资产投资（不含农户）增长<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">5.91%<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">。
<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">分产业看，上半年，第一产业投资<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">8296<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">亿元，同比增长<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">3.8%<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">，增速比<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">1—5<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">月份提高<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">3.8<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">个百分点；第二产业投资<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">85011<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">亿元，下降<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">8.3%<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">，降幅收窄<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">3.5<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">个百分点；第三产业投资<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">188296<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">亿元，下降<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">1.0%<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">，降幅收窄<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">2.9<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">个百分点。
<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">对于基建投资增速回升的原因，银河证券首席经济学家潘向东分析表示，一方面是赶工需求，另一方面是资金规模与效率提高。房地产投资增速回升的原因在于国内疫情好转，赶工需求回升。房屋施工面积累计同比增速均出现回落，而房地产投资增速明显上升，表明在交房压力下，房企需要赶工，施工强度上升。与此同时，货币宽松下，也加速房地产需求回暖。
<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">野村中国首席经济学家陆挺则表示，基础设施投资回升也是二季度<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">GDP<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">快速反弹的驱动因素之一。首先，<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">5<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">月份，基础设施投资同比增长速度已经上升到了<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">11%<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">，可以说是过去几年中最快的；其次，基础设施的质量在优化，这次我们强调了很多新的基建，同时更加强调了在中心城市和城市群的基础设施；第三，基础设施投资快速恢复增长，再加上我们其他的一些投资恢复增长，实际上也拉动了我们国内的工业生产，比方说挖掘机，这样一个直接和基础设施建设非常相关的工程机械在过去的几个月，增长速度已经达到了<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">60%<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">以上。发电量到了六月份的时候，也已经恢复到了<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">6.1%<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">的增长。
<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">消费
<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">数据显示，<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">6<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">月份，社会消费品零售总额<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">33526<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">亿元，同比下降<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">1.8%<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">，降幅比上月收窄<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">1.0<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">个百分点。今年以来，社会消费品零售总额同比增速虽均为负数，但降幅在逐步收窄。总体上，<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">1—6<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">月份，社会消费品零售总额<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">172256<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">亿元，同比下降<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">11.4%<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">155869<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">亿元，下降<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">10.9%<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">。
<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">潘向东分析表示，上半年社零同比下降<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">11.4%<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">，降幅较<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">1-5<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">月收窄<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">2.1<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">个百分点。汽车消费转正，主要受需求滞后释放以及各地出台汽车消费刺激政策影响。地产链相关消费恢复地较快<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">——<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">需求滞后释放；地产竣工处于上升周期。往后看，当前基建、地产投资、汽车与地产链消费回升的逻辑可能会延续，上述变量仍有进一步改善的空间。
<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">中央财经大学金融学院教授郭田勇对经济观察网表示：<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">“<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">当前，消费主要面临两个问题，一是收入决定消费，居民收入如果下降或提升不多，也将影响到消费，二是房贷占居民总收入的比例依旧很高，房贷是不纳入居民消费品零售总额的，房贷占比过高将影响居民消费。
<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">在居民收入方面，国家统计局数据显示，上半年居民实际收入呈下降趋势，但降幅不断收窄。上半年，全国居民人均可支配收入<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">15666<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">元，同比名义增长<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">2.4%<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">，增速比一季度加快<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">1.6<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">个百分点；扣除价格因素实际下降<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">1.3%<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">，降幅收窄<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">2.6<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">个百分点。
<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">就业
<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">数据显示，上半年，全国城镇新增就业人员<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">564<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">万人，完成全年目标任务的<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">62.7%<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">。<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">6<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">月份，全国城镇调查失业率为<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">5.7%<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">，比<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">5<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">月份下降<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">0.2<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">个百分点。二季度末，农村外出务工劳动力总量<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">17752<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">万人。
<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">此前在疫情影响下，农民工外出务工受到一定程度影响。
<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">5<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">月<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">15<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">日，国家统计局新闻发言人刘爱华介绍，在<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">4<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">月末国家统计局组织的一次农民工快速调查显示<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">4<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">月末外出农民工规模已经恢复到往年的九成左右。如果以<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">2019<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">年<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">12<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">月外出务工的农村劳动力来推算<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">——<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">彼时外出务工农村劳动力总数约为<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">17425<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">万，<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">4<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">月末仍有约<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">1700<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">万返乡的农村劳动力未外出务工。（二季度末农村外出务工劳动力总量已超过此水平）。
<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">中国社会科学院农村发展研究所研究员李国祥也曾对经济观察网表示：<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">“<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">今年农民工外出就业受到的影响还是比较大。一部分农民工因为疫情影响，无法外出就业；其次对于此前给外向型企业工作的农民工，因为海外疫情的持续，这些企业自身经营受影响，企业的岗位需求也相应的萎缩；第三，因为今年就业不确定大，农民工对于外出就业比较慎重。<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">”
<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">总体就业目标上，<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">2020<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">年《政府工作报告》提出城镇调查失业率目标为<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">6%<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">左右。<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">1-5<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">月，全国城镇调查失业率分别为<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">5.3%<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">、<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">6.2%<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">、<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">5.9%<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">、<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">6.0%<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">、<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">5.9%<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">。
<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">中国社科院世界社保研究中心主任郑秉文则对经济观察网表示，从去年《政府工作报告》中稳就业位于<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">“<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">六稳<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">”<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">首位到今年《政府工作报告》保就业位于<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">“<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">六保<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">”<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">之首。既说明今年疫情之下就业形势更为严峻，也显示今年特殊时期中央就业政策目标更加坚定。
<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">未来方向
<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">对于下半年<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">GDP<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">走势，管清友表示：<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">“<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">全年的经济增长应该是一个前低后高的态势，目前，这也是市场的共识。相信三四季度随着中国抗疫的成果逐渐显现，我们经济恢复也会更加步入正轨，所以我觉得还是很期待。<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">”
<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">潘向东则表示，展望下半年，中国经济修复的最大的变量在于出口。由于国内疫情控制得比较好，以投资和消费为代表的内需仍然存在继续改善空间，但当前全球疫情未出现收敛，尤其是美国在解封后疫情数据不断创新高，不排除未来局部重新封锁的可能，同时，印度等新兴市场人口密度大、医疗条件差，疫情的蔓延对这些国家经济造成压力，因此，出口是下半年最大的不确定性。
<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">对于下一步政策方向，管清友表示，针对可能的疫情反复、国际贸易关系和中美关系的变化，我们确实要做好政策储备，不能一下子使劲儿使完了，根据根据情况做微调，相机抉择。
<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">郭田勇对经济观察网表示：<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">“<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">下半年，政策还是要继续安排到位。因为我们感觉中国的疫情防控到位以后，经济开始复苏，但是当前供给侧复苏的能力强于需求侧。一方面，很多偏出口的企业复工以后发现国外市场需求大幅缩减；另一方面，国内消费短时间内难以增加很多。所以未来还是要考虑如何在需求侧上做功夫，既要提升国内消费信心，同时进一步扩大开放，加强与其他国家的交流。<晴风村n style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">”